<p>Financial markets predict one-in-five chance of quarter-point rise in interest rates when Bank of England decides on Thursday</p><ul><li><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/sep/16/uk-inflation-expected-to-have-risen-in-august-as-cost-of-living-squeeze-tightens-business-live">Business live – latest updates</a></p></li></ul><p>UK inflation has returned above 3% as soaring fuel and transport prices triggered by the Iran war heap renewed pressure on British households.</p><